The hottest paper industry chain is in trouble. Ca

2022-10-19
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The paper industry chain is in trouble. Can pulp futures rebound against the market?

pulp futures have fallen sharply since its listing. At present, the main contract price is 4978/ton, compared with the mainstream Silver Star price of 5800/ton in the spot market, and the discount range is 822/ton. From a fundamental point of view, the pressure on pulp prices is large, but too large basis will inhibit its falling space

the commodity market has been suppressed

recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made an obvious dovish statement, which reflects the weakness of a series of macro data in the United States, making Federal Reserve officials gradually recognize the fact that the momentum of the U.S. economic cycle has slowed down rapidly

domestically, the retail growth rate fell sharply in October, and infrastructure investment rebounded. However, the leading indicators of real estate and manufacturing investment showed that the follow-up investment pressure was large, the monetary and social finance growth was significantly lower than expected, CPI was flat and PPI was down. The manufacturing PMI index in November was 50, down 0.2 percentage points from October, hitting a 28 month new low with increasingly powerful functions

the recent weak economic data has been expected in the market for a long time. With the repeated verification of pessimistic economic data, the bulk commodity market as a whole is still on the short side

the paper industry chain is in trouble

this year, the downstream paper industry chain is in trouble. China's machine adjusted passive needle spring screws and pointer paper and paperboard production this year is significantly lower than that in the past two years. As of October, the cumulative output of machine-made paper and paperboard in China was 97.353 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. Among them, cultural paper and paper fell significantly. Demand fell significantly, leading to a significant increase in pulp inventory. At present, the inventories of Baoding, Qingdao and Changshu, the three major domestic pulp inventory points, are at a very high position. The total inventory of the three places has accumulated 1.41 million tons, an increase of 815000 tons from 595000 tons last year, and a year-on-year increase of 137% in China's non-ferrous metal import and export in 2015. From a global perspective, wood pulp inventory is also significantly accumulated, and the total wood pulp inventory of several major ports in the world has reached a new high since 2013

at the same time, in November, under the pattern of light demand in the domestic spot pulp market, all kinds of imported pulp outer discs showed a downward trend, and the downstream paper mill trading enterprises lacked the power to take over the discs. The net price of coniferous pulp fell, ranging from 30-60 US dollars/ton. The quotation in the inner market fell more sharply, and the pressure on bleached wood pulp was obvious, and the overall decline of coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp in the month was 600-700/ton

the pulp spot market is also difficult to improve in the short term and will continue to decline. However, due to the current basis of nearly 800, we need to carefully evaluate the trend of futures prices. In the long run, the volatility of pulp spot price is relatively small, which can be seen from the rise and fall limit range and the minimum margin ratio set by Shanghai futures exchange for pulp futures, which are enough to face the most severe environmental test. Under normal circumstances, the price limit of pulp futures is 3%, and the minimum margin level is 4%, which is the lowest level of all listed bulk commodities, which means that the fluctuation range of pulp in the long term is the smallest of all listed bulk commodities. Futures market discount is the extent that the market believes that the forward price has fallen compared with the current price. Under the background of weak macro atmosphere, the industrial products in the whole market have a certain discount, but they are mainly concentrated in the black and chemical markets, with a general range of 10% - 15%. However, the paper pulp futures with relatively small fluctuation range are currently at a discount of about 15%, which is inappropriate

therefore, the author believes that although the fundamentals of the pulp market are poor and the spot market may continue to be depressed, the excessive discount demand of futures is repaired, and the future price is expected to stop falling or rebound slightly, repairing the excessive basis

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