The hottest paper industry failed to get rid of th

Paper industry: unable to get rid of the long-term profit averaging trend

we give the paper industry a neutral rating as a whole. The main reason is that under the macro background of the coexistence of high GDP and high CPI, the timber price increase in 2007 may reach 20%, higher than the previous market expectation of 10%. With the increase of fiber resource cost, the price of all kinds of paper shows a trend of increasing. However, the pure papermaking sub industry has still not been able to get rid of the trend of long-term profit averaging, and the paper types with high gross profit margins are accompanied by manufacturers' production expansion plans. The possibility of domestic and export market demand exceeding expectations is gradually decreasing with the increase of demand base. In terms of individual stocks, maintain the buy rating of Yueyang Paper (600963), which is rich in forestry resources

from the perspective of various sub industries, maintain the neutral rating of the pulp industry; Maintain a neutral rating for the paper industry; Maintain the underweight rating of the carton board industry; Raise the rating of coated paper industry to neutral; Improve the rating of the double offset paper industry to increase its holdings; Maintain the overweight rating of the white cardboard industry

the global pulp price of pulp continued to operate at a high level

the gross profit margin of the pulp industry increased by 2.11% in 2007, mainly driven by the rapid rise in the price of broad-leaved pulp, which is expected to decline slightly at a high level in 2007

the newly-built production capacity of needle pulp in the world is less, the supply growth is limited, and the price change formula is the beginning of the self destruction of the Great Wall by polyurea manufacturers. It is expected that the price will remain high, and the gross profit rate will remain high; In the second half of 2007, the new production capacity of broad-leaved pulp will be released, and the price is expected to decline, and the gross profit rate is expected to decrease; The gross profit margin of mechanical pulp has little change due to the rising cost; The price of poplar and wood chips will continue to rise, and is expected to increase by about 20% in 2007

the gross profit rate of paper will remain low.

in terms of price, in 2007, the price of paper was raised by 300 yuan/ton, but due to the continuous rise in the price of American waste, it still failed to effectively improve the gross profit rate of the industry as a whole. With the continuous rise in the price of American waste, paper still has the power to raise the price, but its supply and demand have not improved significantly. The price increase is mainly caused by cost promotion, which has little impact on the gross profit margin. In 2007, the absolute value of gross profit margin of the paper industry decreased by 1.9% compared with July. The rise in paper prices was offset by the rise in North American prices. The US waste 8# price rose from $195/ton in July 2007 to $213/ton in October, but there was still no sign of decline. It is expected that the gross profit margin will remain low in the future

due to sluggish demand, the balance of supply and demand in the paper industry is extremely fragile. The growth rate of domestic demand in the paper market is still slowing down. At present, the annual growth rate of domestic demand in the warranty period is about 7%. According to the annual domestic demand of 3.61 million tons in 2006, the annual domestic demand increases by about 250000 tons. According to the current paper machine capacity of more than 300000 tons, a new paper machine can meet the new domestic demand. Guangzhou Paper Co., Ltd. put into production 380000 ton production line at the end of December 2007, Shanying Paper Co., Ltd. put into production 180000 ton production line in August 2007, and Huatai Guangzhou 400000 ton production line is expected to be put into production at the end of 2008. Although there are positive news in the industry, such as the shutdown of small factories, the conversion of Yuezhou paper to production, and the conversion of Huatai Paper Machine to cultural paper, the balance of supply and demand in the industry is still fragile and vulnerable to the negative impact of the new production capacity

at the same time, with the continued decline of North American paper prices and the rise of domestic paper prices, the export market is not optimistic. North American paper prices have fallen by $77/ton, or 12% this year. Paper consumption in North America fell by 11.6% year-on-year, which will continue to cause tight supply of American waste 8# and rising prices, driving domestic paper costs to remain high. With the rise in domestic paper prices caused by the decline in North American paper prices and the rise in American waste prices, the competitive advantage of domestic paper in the Southeast Asian market is gradually disappearing, and the domestic export scale has stabilized. At present, the export level fluctuates at 10000 tons/month. According to the current data, the national paper export volume in 2007 was about 600000 tons, lower than the general expectation of the market

it is difficult to avoid the oversupply of box master paper

a large number of new production capacity of box master paper were put into production from 2007 to 2008, and the industry will show a serious oversupply situation in the coming years

in 2007, the absolute value of gross profit margin of box master paper industry decreased by 2.6%. After reaching the highest point of 25.7% in May, with the continuous production of new capacity, the decline of gross profit margin became the trend of the industry before the end of 2008, and the industry reshuffle began

the price of domestic box master paper was affected by the sharp rise in the price of American waste in 2007, and the price was increased by 200 yuan/ton. It is expected that with the release of box master paper production capacity and the rise in the price of American waste, the price is expected to decline steadily in the fourth quarter of 2007

the price of coated paper increased faster.

exports eased the domestic supply and demand situation, and the industry price increased faster, completely digesting the negative impact of the rise in raw material prices. However, export depends on the export tax rebate policy, and the sustainability of this policy remains to be seen

the absolute gross profit margin of coated paper industry increased by about 1.6% in 2007. The main reason is the price rise of coated paper and pulp. It is expected that the gross profit rate of coated paper industry will remain stable. The Ministry of environmental protection and the General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and Quarantine of the people's Republic of China issued gb/t 27630 (2) 011 "guidelines for the evaluation of air quality in passenger cars" in 2011

depending on the hardness of the material, Hainan app pulp plant will successively build a coated paper production line with an annual output of 1.25 million tons in 2008 to digest self-produced wood pulp, which will increase the coated paper production capacity by 30% and cause the deterioration of the supply and demand situation of the industry in the future. The Japanese Prince has not given up the new production plan, but may postpone it to 2009. Several domestic manufacturers also have plans to expand the production of coated paper

due to the positive impact of the increase in exports caused by national export subsidies, the monthly price of domestic coated paper increased by about 350 yuan per ton, but the new capacity next to Hainan app pulp plant brought some pressure to the market in 2008

the income of medium and low-end products of double offset paper increases.

the gross profit rate of medium and low-end double offset paper will continue to rise, and the gross profit rate of high-end double offset paper industry is expected to be stable

due to the pollution problem of small paper mills, the supply of straw pulp, reed pulp and other pulps is expected to decrease year by year in the future. The reduction of low-cost pulp has improved the current gross profit margin of companies that own raw materials such as straw pulp, bamboo pulp and reed pulp

the gross profit margin of high-grade double offset paper is basically stable. The demand of high-grade double offset paper industry is stable, and some cultural paper manufacturers that have stopped production due to environmental problems are gradually resuming production after using commercial pulp. The overall balance of supply and demand

the price of domestic double offset paper continues to rise due to the rise in raw material prices. The price of high-end double offset paper rose by 350 yuan/ton in January

the competition of white card paper is slowing down

the gross profit rate of white card paper will maintain an upward trend in the future, mainly because the competition is slowing down before the production of 300000 tons of capacity of sun paper in June 2008

in 2007, the gross profit margin of the white cardboard industry was 24%, an increase of 2.5%, mainly due to the rise in the price of white cardboard. With the 300000 ton production capacity of Meili Paper at the end of 2007 and the 300000 ton production capacity of sun paper in June 2008, the market supply and demand are expected to be basically balanced in the future, and the gross profit rate of white cardboard industry is expected to remain stable after the 300000 ton production of Sun Paper

coniferous pulp accounts for 10% of its cost, and broad-leaved pulp accounts for 30%. The two together account for 40% of the total cost, which is the main factor affecting the cost. The price of broad-leaved pulp fell in the second half of 2007. It is expected that the imbalance between supply and demand of white cardboard will be improved in the future, but due to the decline in pulp prices, the price of white cardboard is expected to decline in the future